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It is almost certain that the Australian selectors would have chosen Shane Warne
ahead of Stewart MacGill for this summer's test series against the West Indies,
except for the recent injury to Warne's finger. No doubt most cricket fans
(certainly in Australia anyway) will concur with that priority, believing that
he deserves to be selected due to his outstanding past record and service to
his country.
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But is this the correct decision? How much weight should selectors place on a
champion's past performances as opposed to current form?
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As the table below shows, Warne's form declined dramatically in 1998 when he suffered
a shoulder injury, and despite much hype to the contrary that form has not yet recovered.
For the period 1st January, 1998 to the present, Warne's bowling average is 33.05 which
for an Australian test bowler is very ordinary.
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Shane Warne - Bowling Analysis 1997-2000
|
Year
|
O
|
M
|
R
|
W
|
5w
|
10w
|
Best
|
Avg
|
S/R
|
E/R
|
| 1997 |
682.5 |
196 |
1661 |
68 |
2 |
0 |
6/48 |
24.43 |
60.25 |
2.43 |
|
1998 |
268.1 |
62 |
796 |
24 |
2 |
1 |
6/34 |
33.17 |
67.04 |
2.97 |
|
1999 |
463.6 |
124 |
1253 |
38 |
2 |
0 |
5/52 |
32.97 |
73.26 |
2.70 |
|
2000 |
154.2 |
37 |
496 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
4/68 |
33.07 |
61.73 |
3.22 |
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MacGill has had only limited opportunities, but in his debut year he took 35 wickets at
a cost of 26.20. In his second year - with even more limited opportunities - he
performed even better taking 24 wickets at an average of 19.13.
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Stewart MacGill - Bowling Analysis 1998-1999
| Year |
O |
M |
R |
W |
5w |
10w |
Best |
Avg |
S/R |
E/R |
|
1998 |
308.4 |
58 |
917 |
35 |
1 |
0 |
5/66 |
26.20 |
52.91 |
2.97 |
|
1999 |
159.5 |
36 |
459 |
24 |
2 |
1 |
7/50 |
19.13 |
39.96 |
2.88 |
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One of Warne's greatest attributes has been his great accuracy, loose balls being
a rarity, giving him the ability to tie a batsman down. In the last 12-18 months,
there have been many more loose balls, reducing the pressure on the batsman. Warne
also seems to have lost one of his most dangerous deliveries, the "flipper". In
recent times on the occasions when he has attempted it, it has mostly been dispatched
to or over the boundary.
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This decline is reflected in his economy rate which has blown out from an outstanding 2.43
per over in 1997 to a quite ordinary 3.22 so far in 2000.
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The 2000-2001 test season may well be a watershed in Shane Warne's career. It will be
interesting to see if the selectors want Warne to come back through the Pura Milk Cup
competition, or if they are prepared to bring him straight back into the Test team.
If MacGill performs up to the form he has shown in his past appearances for Australia,
the selectors may be presented with a very difficult decision.
Over the years, the Australian selectors have persisted with many players for a long
time after their form justified selection. If Warne is unable to turn his form around
it will be interesting to see how long the Australian selectors will continue to back him.
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Shane Warne/Stewart MacGill - Comparison 1st Jan, 1998 TO 30th Sep, 2000
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Player
|
O
|
M
|
R
|
W
|
5w
|
10w
|
Best
|
Avg
|
S/R
|
E/R
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S C G MacGill
|
468.3
|
94
|
1376
|
59
|
3
|
1
|
7/50
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23.32
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47.64
|
2.94
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S K Warne
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886.3
|
223
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2545
|
77
|
4
|
1
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6/34
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33.05
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69.08
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2.87
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